Anticipation and a Twinge of Excitement Starting to Creep In

With everyone concerned about Coronavirus, I’m sure a lot of our excitement about the draft and the schedule release has been curtailed.   But with 10 days to go for the draft (and probably any day now for the schedule release), it’s finally starting to hit me.

I hope you all are safe and sound.

A lot of the same rumors continue to buzz around, plus some new rumors, plus some contradictions of the original rumors.   The bottom line?   IT’S ALL RUMORS!  We don’t know.   The good news is that we only need to wait 2 more days to find out.

I’ll begin by saying this one last time.  No matter who we covet–Burrow or Tua or Herbert or whoever–no matter who we want the most, there is a chance that some other team will scoop in and grab our guy.  And that terrible possibility is due to some mistakes Brian Flores made last year.  I won’t dwell, but was it really really necessary to run that punter-to-kicker trick play to beat the Eagles?  Did we really need to line up Christian Wilkins in pass formation on a trick play to beat the Bengals?   I wish I could call those games meaningless, but they weren’t.   On the contrary, they were COSTLY to the Dolphins.  We’re picking 5th instead of first or second because of Flores’ Madden mentality, and it could come back to haunt us.   I know he wanted to instill a winning mentality, but of the 53 men who “learned” that winning is important to Flores, about half will be gone come opening day.  You won costly games so that guys who aren’t on the team anymore can feel good.

So, that’s done. Now… after studying this as much as many of you, I’m ready to state that I think Tua should be the first pick.  Roll the dice on his health.  Watch his film before the injuries and hope he recaptures that.  A healthy Tua is more dynamic than a possible one-year wonder in Burrow.  His skill set is more in line with modern QBs like Mahomes and Jackson.  Worst case scenario is that he busts out and we have to try again.  Again.  But if we shy away from Tua because of a possible injury and he goes to another team and excels for 15 years?  It will be Drew Brees all over again, and there’s no recovery from that.

So I decided I like Tua at the #5 pick.  His upside sells me.  Now then…do we trade up to ensure we get the man I want?   That becomes a whole other question.  If the Dolphin powers that be feel that he’s the man, then I would move up to #2 to get him.   I do not believe that Washington thinks Dwayne Haskins is a Super Bowl QB for years to come.   Matthew Stafford in Detroit certainly is not.  And yet those teams remain coy in saying “We’re not drafting a QB.”  Of course they say that !   So IF Miami craves Tua, give up a first and a third or so to move up 3 spots.   I’m cool with that.

If they DON’T covet Tua, then there’s no need to move anywhere.   If they like Herbert or Love or one of the others, then stay put and take him at #5.  Then we’ll get to hear Chris Grier say “We got the man we wanted the entire time” (like every single GM says), and no one will believe him.

There’s also a lot of talk about drafting an O lineman at #5.  This doesn’t make sense to me.  But it makes more sense than taking a RB, which is yet another rumor.  RBs are a dime a dozen, and taking one at #5 would be so unwise.

 

 

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29 Comments

  1. Just a note regarding the schedule release.

    I think the NFL announced that the release date would be much later this year, probably after the draft, but no later than May 9th.

    1. Author

      Thanks, AJ. You are correct, and the schedule release will be next month.
      Without Tom Brady anymore, I bet the Patriots schedule is more fair this season.
      I sincerely hope the stupid Commissioner cancels all European games.

  2. There’s lots of talk about the Dolphins either taking Herbert at 5 or trading up to take him. I think it’s all a smokescreen because I believe they truly want Tua. On a side note, I’m concerned that I’m some way, shape, or form, we will be the laughing stock of the draft as someone else – the Chargers will end up with him.

    1. Author

      The possibility of the Miami Laughingstocks is very real. However, I’m going to trust in the new Dolphin decision makers. These aren’t the same guys who selected our other clowns in the past. They seem smart and serious.
      And while we have made some horrible picks in the last decade or so, the Dolphins as a whole aren’t as bad at drafting as some other teams. Look and Cleveland and Cincy and Detroit, and Jacksonville. Even Chicago and the Jets. Their fans have consistently dreaded draft day, instead of embracing it!

  3. I have gravitated to Tua too, I agree that he has upside. With Burrow, I am concerned about his small hand size; I think this means Joe will only do well in a run-heavy offense that features selective, efficient passing plays. MAYBE, that type of offense is Dolphins future with Flores. But in the short term, our offensive line is porous, which means Burrow would have to scramble often, which increases the opportunity for small-hands QB fumbling

    1. Author

      It’s not like I’ve seen anything different in the last few months. I rarely watched Tua’s college career. I just trust the experts. He might be like Andrew Luck, a highly touted college prospect who did “okay” in the NFL. But the Dolphins are in much better shape than the Colts ever were. A younger team with plenty of room to grow. With money and draft capital to build a strong line around a QB.

  4. Author

    Also, I’ll definitely do a draft Chat Room on Thursday. It’s only a week away, but it seems like an eternity still to go. really looking forward to those 3 picks Thursday night, and I hope they don’t trade them away.

    1. Armando tweeted that Grier feels good about 8 or 9 players at the number 5 spot. If that’s the case, I don’t think they would trade. But who knows. It’s all a chess game right now. On another note, I keep getting a nagging feeling the Patsies, with 12 picks, are going to trade up and snag a quarterback who would be good for Miami. Just worried that they’ll talk to Matt Patricia and strike a deal like that. We’ll see. I look forward to this draft.

      1. Author

        Right. But I worry that of the 8 or 9 players, half are WRs that we absolutely don’t need. This is not the year to take the best player available at #5 if that player is a RB or WR.

        1. I cringe when I hear WR in the first round. Do these guys have any clue who is on the roster??? They have so many needs that they can go BPA and when equal always take a position of need instead of WR. I’m not saying they can’t take a WR but maybe later on!

          I’m ok with Tua if they are. I’m ok with Hebert or Love if they are. If they must trade up so be it but I’d rather not as how can anyone really know if one is that much better than the other? They have so many needs why give away too many picks. A few sure a lot no.

          1. You guys wouldn’t want a WR for more depth? Just wondering.

            1. I don’t mind them adding a WR later for competition as they have so many picks but nothing before round 4. Too many other important positions to fill first. After QB oline should be a major focus as well as S, RB and pass rush. Unless someone fantastic falls I’m taking those areas when in a tie or close.

        2. A WR at 5 for Miami would be a colossal fail for this draft.

  5. Drew Rosenhaus said on Sports Xtra he thinks the Dolphins take Herbet at 5 and will pass on Tua there. If they take a lineman at 5 they target Tua or Love later on.

    1. Interesting. I’m hearing some people say that if Herbert had more talent around him like Tua did he would have shown a lot more. Makes sense to me.

      I think that if they draft a QB that’s ready to start at some point this season like Herbert they may not need Fitz especially if Rosen remains on the roster. You could go with the two young guys to let them develop. I’m not sure if there would be a penalty if they let Fitz go at this time?

  6. Author

    Imagine if Tua is our man, and we sat back and waited for our turn to select him, only someone beat us to the punch.
    (CBS’s latest mock showed the Pats trading up to select Tua).
    You can substitute any player in there, and the danger is the same. If they like someone, they must do everything possible to grab him early.

    1. If Tua or anyone for that matter is their man I believe that they’ll make the move to get him if necessary. They’ve flat out said so that’s why they have so much draft capital. I’ve recently heard that the Fins are sniffing around the cost to move up from 18. This shows that they are preparing for all scenarios.

      For all we know they could have Tua, Herbert or even Love all close to similar grades. Due to this would you throw away picks to move up when one or even all three will most likely be there at five? Hell they may even trade back and get more picks and still get their guy. They could then use some of that ammo to move up from 18 and get another guy. This game could and should be played if the option is there.

      One way or another this will be a fun ride! Personally I stay at 5 as I have no idea who’s going to be better or bust. If I have any doubt trade back and go with the best option left. Then with 18 use the same strategy although I see then trading up from there for an OT or who knows QB although QB would be riskier to let slide. You have NE, NO, Raiders, etc….any of them may make a move.

  7. If they do take an OT with the fifth pick, they must like Love over Tua or Herbert and will trade up from the 18th pick or they are waiting till next year for Lawrence.

  8. Today the big rumor is that we’re looking to trade up from 5 to get an OT. I won’t be pleased with that! If they want a tackle stay at 5 and they will get one of those top 4 guys. But to give up a first round for a OT when there are a bunch this year! I hope it’s just a smokescreen!!! Now I’m concerned! Lol! We better not fuck this up!

    1. Author

      Yes, it is a concern. However, I think all 32 GMs know who they have in mind. And then they talk to reporters “confidentially” or they talk to NFL “insiders.”
      Do you think the GMs are honest with these guys? There is no way. It’s all gamesmanship.
      Trading up to get a tackle seems odd.

    2. I call smokescreen and to be honest they seem to be doing a great job as no one has a clue not even us fans. If they don’t go QB I would hope that they trade back a few picks and acquire more ammo. NFL channel was doing a simulation and had the raiders offering 12 and 19 for 5. That would be killer! Imagine the haul they would take in and still get a solid OT plus a QB that falls or Love. Really made me think about it.

      1. Author

        And my gut tells me we need defensive stars way more than offense.
        Remember…we led the lowly Bengals by 16 points with 29 SECONDS left in the game, and blew that lead. can’t keep experimenting with guys, Time to bring in some studs.
        That being said, I wouldn’t mind a QB and two O tackles in the first round. I wouldn’t draft D in the first round. But Rounds 2-7, I want D D D !

  9. Author

    Also, the more Detroit says they are happy with Matt Stafford, the more I think they want Tua. Smokescreen!

  10. Barry Jackson reported that the Phins trying to get the 3rd pick and keep the 5th for OT and Quarterback. Possibly Jedrick Wills and Tua. Man I don’t know if I’m going to be able to sleep tonight!

    1. Author

      It really is an exciting time. Kudos to roger Goodell for not postponing this.

  11. Author

    Would you give up the 18th and 26th pick to get the 3rd? I would!!

  12. Author

    Although I do laugh at these rumors, even though Barry Jackson is reliable. So Chris Grier calls the Lions to work out a deal for the #3 overall pick up. They discuss it and hang up the phone. Grier then calls Barry Jackson to tell him this news. Athough I won’t accuse barry of making the whole thing up, I just don’t see it happening that way.

    1. Oh yeah this probably is smoke and mirrors. But man if we could get the best tackle it would be saweet! I’m still concerned the patsies are going to try and steal a quarterback via a trade up. They too have lots of draft capital and I don’t think they are content with who they have now. Plus Belichik is a sneaky bastard. It’s going to be a fun night for sure.

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