I envisioned this scenario a few weeks ago when the Dolphins began their run of 7 wins in a row:

If the Dolphins win out, they will be 10-7.  Their AFC East record becomes 4-2 (2 wins vs. NE, 2 wins vs. NYJ, and 2 losses vs. BUF).  The Pats will fall to 10-7, and also be 4-2 in the division.  And if the Bills lose to the Jets in Week 17 (let’s hope the Jets keep throwing the trick plays into their nothing-to-lose arsenal), they will fall to 10-7 and be 4-2 in the division.  What a mess to sort out.

With a 3-way tie at 10-7 and a 3-way tie at 4-2 in the division, the AFC record favors the Dolphins.   The Bills’ sweep vs. Miami does not factor into a three-way tie.  BUT…if the Patriots lose two more games, we end up in a TWO-way tie with Buffalo, we lose that tiebreaker.  For that reason, as bizarre as this sounds, we want the Patriots to beat JAX this weekend, which shouldn’t be too hard.

The Bills game vs. the Falcons is not important either way.  We need BUF to lose to the Jets to driop their division record to 4-2 and keep that AFC East in a 3-way tie.  If the Bills lose twice and we end up in a two-way tie with NEP, we are the division champs.  Not impossible.

Other sites will tell you to root against the Pats and Bills, but that will actually HURT the Dolphins’ chance to win the AFC East.  Plus, if both the Bills and Pats lose this upcoming weekend, it creates an even more complicated wild card path for the Dolphins.  At this point, the teams that are ahead of us…we WANT them to stay ahead of us.  Let them win their divisions and not sink into the wild-card pool of teams.  The more teams in the wild-card pool, the more chance there is that the Dolphins lose some crazy tie-breaking scenario.  That is what frustrates me about the Ravens’ tanking.  They had firm control of their division, and the Dolphins were basically competing in the WildCard with CIN, CLE, and PIT.  But now that the Raven shave choked away their huge division lead, they’ve become another team to compete with for that final WC spot.

Of course, this is all hypothetical.  It’s fun to play with the numbers, but in reality, I don’t know if the Dolphins can beat the Titans, the only decent team we’ve played in 2 months.  If the Dolphins lose, I don’t think their eliminated.  So a win will make it all very very interesting.

8 Comments

  1. RIP John Madden. Crazy how we were talking about him last night in the chat room. my first game that i ever watched was Dolphins vs Raiders. Dolphins won, hence I became a life long Phins fan.

    1. Yeah, I’m guessing the folks at Fox knew the end was near and rushed that bio out asap. It was interesting, even though the majority of it was his commentary and video game days, with less emphasis on his 10 years as coach

  2. Barring on any unfortunate dolphin Covid announcements, I think we have a good chance at beating the Titans. This is assuming Henry is not playing. Titans have only been able to score 20 points per game during the last three games. So our defense should be able to hold Titans in check and give the Phins a chance at a win.

  3. Author

    Returner Tommy Lee Lewis is out for the year. We were wondering during the chat what happened to him,.

  4. Brand Jones on the COVID list, plus Preston Williams and a couple of NT’s

  5. From what I’ve heard if the Fins win out they will be in the playoffs. They control their own destiny. To win the division you are correct Admin they need a 3 way tie or Buf to lose out. Need buf to at least lose one which is entirely possible especially since Atlanta is still alive…you never know.

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