Mathematically, the answer is yes. And that’s better than nothing. We need to keep snorting the “Hopium,” as reader FlyerPhin says.
I still think our best chance is to win the division. I may alter that depending on the Bills-Patriots game Sunday, which is a day ahead of ours, and we’ll know more heading into Monday Night. But if the Bills win, that means we are a game behind two AFC East teams with two more games to play. If we beat New England in Week 18, we’ll own the tiebreaker over them. So that means we need the Bills to win this week, and then tank in Week 18 vs. the Jets. Unlikely. (Buffalo closes with 2 home games vs. the lowly Falcons and lowlier Jets)
But, as unlikely as that scenario is, I think it’s still more likely than the Dolphins winning a tiebreaker among all the current 7-7 or 8-6 teams in the AFC. It’s a jumbled mess. The Raiders’ win vs. Cleveland helped. It dropped the Browns into the muddled mess, instead of keeping them ahead of us. Yes, the Raiders beat us and own that tiebreaker…BUT…a head-to-head tiebreaker only matters when two teams are tied. When there are a whole bunch of teams involved, that head-to-head win is meaningless.
I think in any of these scenarios, the Dolphins have to win out. That is the hardest part before we start watching the scoreboard. All 3 of our next opponents are good teams, but beatable. I think the Saints were all in for the last game at Tampa–it was their Super Bowl that they waited all year for, and they played like it. Now they can come back to earth. After that is our old friend Ryan Tannehill, and we need him to play bad. (we know he has that in him, lol). After that we close at home vs. New England. Tough teams, but winnable.
I figure we’ll lose a game or two in there, and therefore all the other teams and other scores won’t matter. But still, it’s been nice to see the Dolphins listed in the “In The Hunt” column of the playoff scenarios.
I doubt we win all three games and it will be almost impossible to get in at 9-8 if we win 2 out of three. The only thing that gives me a sliver of hope is the QBs we will be going up against. If any of the three remaining games were up against Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady or Allen, I’d say forget it. But we have to beat Taysom Hill, Tannehill, and the rookie Mac Jones. All these teams we play are going to have to rely on their running games to protect very average QBs. In Tannehill’s case, he is much better as a play-action QB than straight drop back. And Mac Jones just won a game where we threw 3 passes. Point being, our defense MUST focus all week on stopping the run and making these QBs beat us through the air. If we stack the box and force these QBs to beat our corners 1-on-1 over and over again, I like our chances with X and Jones out there. IF we let them get their running games going and have to deal with a lot of 3rd and short situations, then we will allow them to protect their QBs and keep us on our heals. It’s very simple for me…sell out to stop the run the next 3 weeks and we got an outside shot to get into the playoffs because none of these QBs scare me if they have to win the game themselves.
Really no more to say than this. Agree 100%. Back to the Saints’ game, this was a poor offensive showing by the Saints and Miami shoulder be able to hold them to 17 or less. This gives us a good chance to win this game.
Yes, it is a a essentially mute point if we don’t win out. What is Titan RB Henry’s status? I have sinking feeling he will be back for Phins game, in which case that will be a tough one to win. But as any good coach would say, stip looking ahead! Focus on the next game. We can beat the Saints!
The Saints QB is Taysom Hill, and there are two ways to look at him. He is at best a glorified gadget QB, who used to come in a run trick plays and gave Drew Brees a rest here and there. He’s relatively inexperienced as a pro QB, and we should be able to confuse him with a lot of the same defensive schemes that have been successful the past month.
The other way to look at him is that the Dolphins historically have difficulty with athletic QBs who do more than just pass the ball. Josh Allen, for example, has beaten us 6 times in a row, most of the games not even close.
Yes, that is my concern as well But Josh Allen is a much better thrower than Hill. we also did do well against Lamar Jackson on that TND game, so we will need similar performance on MNF
Video of Peyton analyzing Tua during the Giants game
https://youtu.be/904pxqHrltA
Thanks, Axel. That was a fascinating video. Loved it
Now the word is that the saints will start a rookie unknown QB because the other QBs are in protocol. It’s still 5 days away, so let’s see.
They also reached out to Drew Brees to pull him out of retirement.
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/saints-reached-out-drew-brees-miracle-report
Apparently if the Fins win out and the jills win today the Fins have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. It’s possible hopefully they can do it!
I know you don’t like the jills Admin but this was for the best looking good so far today with the patsies losing. Chargers lose too so much for Herbert being their saviour. Ravens could be out now too. Just need the squeelers to lose this afternoon and it will be a pretty good day. Donkeys win would also help but don’t want to ask for the moon. Fins win out please!
I watched Ian Book play at ND, he can run & scoot so Phins should be careful and not take him lightly. I recall he struggled with pocket pressure and had a tendency to rush his throws. He improved on that his Senior year but he may still be susceptible (hint, hint Flores)
If Phins prepared for T.Hill, then that preparation should work against Book
Interesting. I don’t know anything about him, but I can’t see a rookie unknown QB coming in and dismantling our defense, which is playing better. However, what scares me is Alvin Kamara. If the Saints just feed him the ball and throw him tons of screen passes, that will be troublesome for the Dolphins. We haven’t played a road game in over a month, and that will be an issue too.
As of yesterday, we are in the driver seat to win a playoff spot. Will that fact get in the heads of the younger Dolphins? (And 95% of the team is younger!!)
Yes! We must hold Kamara in check! If we do that, putting all the pressure on a first time starter against our defense the way they have been playing, that should be very good!
Agreed keeping Kamara in check is huge and don’t let the rookie run for big gains. Suffocate him and let him make mistakes. Meanwhile the Fins have to continue to run the ball close to 50% taking the pressure off the oline and they will score enough points.
Admin the Fins control their own destiny if they win out they are in. Mostly everything went right yesterday.
I’ll be on chat after missing most of the past few months hopefully we have a good crowd tonight!
Go Fins cheers!
A well rounded win again. A fumble by Tua didn’t hurt us because Waddle hustled to recover the ball. Tua’s INT didn’t come back to hurt us either. We are slowly getting good enough so standard football mistakes don’t doom us. A remarkable turnaround from 1-7
also, 2nd week in a row where Tua and team responded to a Tua mistake (interception) with TD drive.
Justin Herbert has a 14-16 record in his career.
Tua Tagovailoa has a record of 13-7 in his career.
Just saying and that’s with an arguably superior team since they were drafted. Not saying herbert isn’t good but Tua just wins…